Determine the number of weekdays and weekend days in this month? Compare this with the equivalent numbers for next year and last year. What phenomenon forecasted by the health services manager might be influenced by variation in the number and types of days in a month? Be specific and cite examples.

EXERCISES

5-1 Indicate the different ways an individual could forecast his or her weight 10 years from now. Do these methods change based upon whether the individual is 5, 14, 24, or 45 years old? If so, why?

5-2 Using the assumption of the past predicts the future write an equation for the weight forecast. Do the same for the assumption of cause and effect. How does the concept of error play into each?

5-3 Provide examples from the field of health services management of phenomena that are probably best forecasted using genius forecasting. Why?

5-4 Determine the number of weekdays and weekend days in this month? Compare this with the equivalent numbers for next year and last year. What phenomenon forecasted by the health services manager might be influenced by variation in the number and types of days in a month? Be specific and cite examples.

5-5 Calculate the expected number of infants needing neonatal intensive care in a hospital if the historic rate is 5 per 1000 births, and you expect 575 births this year.

5-6 If the annual death rate from smoking is 154 deaths per 100,000 persons, and the annual death rate from firearms is 13.5 deaths per 100,000 persons, how many deaths from these causes would you expect in a community of 1 million people? (Lewis 87)

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